Polarization and the Pandemic: American Political Discourse, March – May 2020 (preprint)

By the middle of March, the Democratic primary had effectively ended and the enormity of the Covid-19 pandemic and its human and economic cost began to sink in. The response to the pandemic had already been thoroughly politicized several weeks earlier such that news and information about the pandemic were mediated by political media systems. While the rest of the American media ecosystem focused on describing the pandemic, its economic costs, and criticizing the president for his response, conservative media presented a thoroughly partisan view of events and proactively defended and supported the actions and inactions of the president. For audiences of conservative media, information about the pandemic was communicated not through politically neutral public health authorities but was instead filtered and propagated through media channels shaped by many decades of partisan politics. The mainstream media coverage of the pandemic that got the most attention was highly critical of the president’s response, which may have deepened the politically-rooted differences in perspectives on the pandemic. Compared to conservative media, there was far greater deference among media sources on the center and left to views and perspectives of public health authorities and experts.This report, based on an ecosystem-wide analysis of political media coverage, spans the period of March, April, and May, when the spread and magnitude of the pandemic in the United States became clear, and the response of the government was communicated to the public and debated in the media. In March, coverage of the pandemic dominated political media on both sides of the political spectrum, though significantly less so on the right. The proportion of media attention to the pandemic diminished in April and May on the left. On the right, attention to the pandemic dropped off steeply. In April, conservative media and their audiences devoted substantial attention to coverage of the allegations of sexual harassment by Tara Reade against Joe Biden. In May, there was far more attention in conservative media to relitigating the origins of the Russia investigation under the banner of Obamagate than to the pandemic, which had already exacted a terrible cost and was nowhere near being under control. The collective judgment of the conservative media ecosystem was that this largely unsubstantiated storyline rooted in grievance politics was more deserving of the attention of the American public. For Biden supporters, the drop in attention to Covid-19 was picked up by negative coverage of the Trump administration on other issues. Sanders supporters followed a similar path until the death of George Floyd at the end May took up their attention. This was not replicated in the Biden set. Consistent with our findings in January-February, at the peak of the primaries season, Sanders supporters here too appear more focused on progressive issues, while Biden supporters are largely focused on criticism or rejection of Trump.The basic asymmetric and polarized structure of American political media has changed little over the past several years, and this time period is no exception. The potent role of conservative media in the election victory of Trump in 2016 rested on two distinct factors: first, Trump’s success in securing favorable coverage and strong support in conservative media, and second, the success that conservative media had in influencing media coverage outside of conservative media. The willingness of conservative media and audiences to defend and support Trump is clearly evident during these months. Trump continued to receive strong support in conservative media, which acted to divert, deflect, and reframe negative coverage, despite the rash of negative coverage criticizing the administration’s response to the pandemic. The evidence also points to a further isolation of conservative media in American political discourse and a system less able to shape discourse and coverage outside of its own confines, leaving Americans in more starkly divided epistemic worlds. The administration-friendly narratives about the pandemic and Obamagate got little to no traction outside of conservative media. This finding matches what we found in a prior report in which we describe the inability of conservative media to shape coverage of the Hunter Biden scandal outside of right-wing media during January and February 2020, a pattern that is repeated in October 2020.Neither President Trump nor conservative media have lost their ability to influence the media agenda. For example, in a recent report we describe how Trump was able to create a controversy about mail-in voter fraud that prompted media coverage across the political spectrum. The sexual harassment allegations lodged by Tara Reade against Joe Biden ultimately got a public airing—something conservative media pushed hard on. Despite the fact that the impetus to address this topic came also from the left, the media attention garnered in conservative media was not matched in the center and left. The key difference is that while President Trump and conservative media can still make news, their power to interpret and frame the narrative around key events beyond conservative media is more constrained than in 2016. The asymmetric credibility gap between conservative media and the rest of the media ecosystem appears to have deepened. And professional media seem to succumb less readily to the “bias of balance” problem that had bedeviled much of mainstream coverage of Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016.There is plentiful evidence of disinformation in political discourse among partisan media and on social media. The problem is far more acute on the right than the left and considerable attention on the far right is tied to the growing QAnon conspiracy. This development is a troubling symptom of the state of political discourse in the United States and translates into real-world costs. However, the impact of top-down propaganda and disinformation is still a greater problem in the United States, particularly so in relation to Covid-19, as tens of millions of Americans have taken unnecessary risks and helped spread the pandemic because they were misinformed about the dangers of contracting the disease and the value of measures deemed effective by public health authorities in reducing the chance of infection, such as social distancing or mask wearing. Many people, including public health specialists and the general public, have come to the conclusion that compared to the relative successes of other countries in addressing the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States response has been a failure, costing innumerable lives and leaving tens of thousands with long-term health problems, while deepening and extending the economic and social consequences of the pandemic. A large minority of Americans fundamentally disagree with this assessment. These divergent worldviews, the symptom of a larger epistemic crisis in the United States tied to asymmetrically polarized media systems, greatly complicate efforts to effectively meet such collection action challenges, and undermine democratic governance. In this paper, we describe how American media ecosystems are able to sustain such different worldviews and contribute to the mishandling and miscommunication of the pandemic. This report is the second in a series of reports that cover the months running up to the November election.

Partisanship, Impeachment, and the Democratic Primaries: American Political Discourse, January - February 2020 (preprint)

The decisions voters will make at the ballot box on November 3, 2020 will be influenced in no small part by the media coverage of the candidates and issues, including the reporting by journalists, the media personalities and pundits on radio and television, text messages and campaign phone calls, podcasts, political ads, and for many, the incessant flow of social media posts of friends and family. In this report, the first of a series of reports that cover the months running up to the November election, we track political discourse in the United States for January and February of 2020, the period of time just before (Covid-19) began to dominate political discourse. We also describe the longer-term structure of political media ecosystems in the United States that shape public discourse by curating, amplifying, and propagating political stories and narratives to distinct political audiences.The agenda of political media in January and February 2020 centered on the impeachment of the president, the Democratic primaries, and the killing of Qasem Soleimani. This agenda was picked up throughout the media ecosystem, but there were stark differences across the media camps in the framing and narrative contours applied to these topics, presenting radically different depictions of the underlying evidence, facts, and interpretation of events. These differences between media spheres that often extend beyond spin and emphasis reflect and reinforce the depth and strength of the divide in American politics.Mainstream media described in great detail the rationale for impeaching the president, while in right-wing media the ‘call was perfect’ and the impetus for impeachment was a concocted charade, a witch hunt, to illegitimately overturn the 2016 election. Mainstream media described a rash decision by President Trump to order a missile strike on General Soleimani that was then sold to the American public on the false pretenses of a clear and imminent threat of attack against United States embassies. Conservative media hailed the killing as a decisive strike against adversaries that has unquestionably increased American security and standing in the world.While mainstream media coverage devoted similar levels of attention to the Democratic primaries and the impeachment of the president in January, and a majority of their attention to the primary race in February, politically engaged users on social media were more focused on partisan one-upmanship. For Democrats, attention was directed at the impeachment and the missteps of Trump and his administration, and in February, the intervention of Attorney General Barr and the Department of Justice in the sentencing of Roger Stone. Republicans, in turn, focused their attention on time-honored political foes: Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic leadership, Hillary Clinton, and the hostile and biased mainstream media. The patterns of attention on both sides are consistent with a view that negative partisanship plays a dominant role in American politics. Trump supporters on Facebook provided an exception to the pattern of negative coverage where celebratory videos of appearances and events of Trump were popular.Negative polarization spilled over into the Democratic primary race, which came down to a battle between progressives pursuing a platform of aggressive action on healthcare, climate change, and social and economic justice versus those that put regaining the White House above all else and saw a moderate candidate as a better bet. The media coverage promoted by Sanders supporters placed major focus on the candidate and his policy positions. In contrast, Biden supporters were oriented towards negative coverage of Trump. The outcome of the Democratic race is in keeping with the tenet that negative partisanship dominates American politics.Conservatives in America appear to have survived the barrage of negative coverage from mainstream media with their partisan perspectives and belief systems intact. This is not because conservative media erected an impermeable barrier against negative coverage from the center and left. Politically engaged conservatives were informed of the damaging coverage, but were unfailingly offered a reinterpretation and reframing of events and a plausible alternative narrative designed to preempt any second thoughts about allegiance to party and president. In deflecting and reframing negative coverage, the tactics employed by conservative media follow a well-developed pattern: downplay the validity of the story; deflect attention to the other side; attack the integrity and motives of sources; reinforce distrust in media outside of the right wing; and invoke a strong partisan framing to activate political identity.The formidable narrative crafting power of conservative media is employed not as a mechanism for accountability among its participants and leaders and not to police against disinformation and substandard reporting. Instead, it is wielded as a buffer against external influence and against deviance from the party line. This leaves the system vulnerable to misleading and false reporting and to those propagating conspiracies, such as the Gateway Pundit and True Pundit. Hyperpartisan media sources, which thrive on outrage and frequently misinform their audiences, play a prominent role in conservative media. On the left, partisan and hyperpartisan outlets play a much smaller role and less frequently propagate stories unconfirmed by mainstream media. The biggest change we observe in these first two months of 2020 compared to the election cycle of four years ago is the degree to which conservative media activists have shaped mainstream media coverage. In 2016, right-wing media activists succeeded in influencing mainstream coverage of Hillary Clinton, particularly on the unsubstantiated allegations of wrongdoing associated with the Clinton Foundation, which exacerbated and fed upon coverage of her emails and fueled suspicions of corruption and dishonesty. In the current election cycle, conservative media activists rolled out the same playbook that was so successful in 2016. This time, the corruption allegations were focused on Joe Biden, his son Hunter, and their dealings with Ukraine and China. This story was picked up by mainstream media in 2019, but the core allegation—that Joe Biden pressured Ukraine to remove a prosecutor in order to protect his son—fell apart under scrutiny. By January 2020, while conservative media continued to push out exaggerated and false claims, the dominant mainstream framing of this story had shifted to Donald Trump’s abuse of his presidential power for his own political gain, which overshadowed the well-established and misguided actions of Hunter Biden to cash in on his father’s name. The discredited allegations of corrupt dealings by Joe Biden were getting no play in mainstream media. While conservative media continues to exhibit a remarkable capacity for reframing news coverage to align with the beliefs and perceptions of its core audiences, in January and February of 2020, its power to shape mainstream media coverage was diminished compared to 2016. This is the most notable change we observe and has the potential to alter the electoral calculus in the November election.

Mail-In Voter Fraud: Anatomy of a Disinformation Campaign (preprint)

The claim that election fraud is a major concern with mail-in ballots has become the central threat to election participation during the COVID-19 pandemic and to the legitimacy of the outcome of the election across the political spectrum. President Trump has repeatedly cited his concerns over voter fraud associated with mail-in ballots as a reason that he may not abide by an adverse electoral outcome. Polling conducted in September 2020 suggests that nearly half of Republicans agree with the president that election fraud is a major concern associated with expanded mail-in voting during the pandemic. Few Democrats share that belief. Despite the consensus among independent academic and journalistic investigations that voter fraud is rare and extremely unlikely to determine a national election, tens of millions of Americans believe the opposite. This is a study of the disinformation campaign that led to widespread acceptance of this apparently false belief and to its partisan distribution pattern. Contrary to the focus of most contemporary work on disinformation, our findings suggest that this highly effective disinformation campaign, with potentially profound effects for both participation in and the legitimacy of the 2020 election, was an elite-driven, mass-media led process. Social media played only a secondary and supportive role.Our results are based on analyzing over fifty-five thousand online media stories, five million tweets, and seventy-five thousand posts on public Facebook pages garnering millions of engagements. They are consistent with our findings about the American political media ecosystem from 2015-2018, published in Network Propaganda , in which we found that Fox News and Donald Trump’s own campaign were far more influential in spreading false beliefs than Russian trolls or Facebook clickbait artists. This dynamic appears to be even more pronounced in this election cycle, likely because Donald Trump’s position as president and his leadership of the Republican Party allow him to operate directly through political and media elites, rather than relying on online media as he did when he sought to advance his then-still-insurgent positions in 2015 and the first half of 2016.Our findings here suggest that Donald Trump has perfected the art of harnessing mass media to disseminate and at times reinforce his disinformation campaign by using three core standard practices of professional journalism. These three are: elite institutional focus (if the President says it, it’s news); headline seeking (if it bleeds, it leads); and balance , neutrality, or the avoidance of the appearance of taking a side. He uses the first two in combination to summon coverage at will, and has used them continuously to set the agenda surrounding mail-in voting through a combination of tweets, press conferences, and television interviews on Fox News. He relies on the latter professional practice to keep audiences that are not politically pre-committed and have relatively low political knowledge confused, because it limits the degree to which professional journalists in mass media organizations are willing or able to directly call the voter fraud frame disinformation. The president is, however, not acting alone. Throughout the first six months of the disinformation campaign, the Republican National Committee (RNC) and staff from the Trump campaign appear repeatedly and consistently on message at the same moments, suggesting an institutionalized rather than individual disinformation campaign. The efforts of the president and the Republican Party are supported by the right-wing media ecosystem, primarily Fox News and talk radio functioning in effect as a party press. These reinforce the message, provide the president a platform, and marginalize or attack those Republican leaders or any conservative media personalities who insist that there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud associated with mail-in voting.The primary cure for the elite-driven, mass media communicated information disorder we observe here is unlikely to be more fact checking on Facebook. Instead, it is likely to require more aggressive policing by traditional professional media, the Associated Press, the television networks, and local TV news editors of whether and how they cover Trump’s propaganda efforts, and how they educate their audiences about the disinformation campaign the president and the Republican Party have waged.